BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 83.2W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 83.2 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue this morning. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across central and eastern Georgia this morning, and then over southern and central South Carolina later today. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, but it is forecast to re-strengthen some when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). During the last few hours, Eastman, Georgia reported a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h), McRae, Georgia reported a wind gust of 59 mph (95 km/h), and Sapelo Island, Georgia reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). Warner-Robins Air Force Base near Macon recently reported a pressure of 980.9 mb (28.97 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of central and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this morning through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts into Friday...

Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the tropical storm moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes remain possible today from Georgia into the Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SC-Stormwatch

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